Matsuyama has been nearly unstoppable in this tournament historically, and a run up the leaderboard on Moving Day has him positioned for yet another trip to the winner’s circle
Two-time WM Phoenix Open champion Hideki Matsuyama is in prime position to capture a third title at TPC Scottsdale after shooting a 68 on Saturday to take sole possession of the lead entering Sunday’s final round. After propelling himself into contention with a 64 on Friday, a steady hand on the Moving Day back nine ensured that the Japanese standout would have an opportunity to raise another trophy in Arizona.
Matsuyama made his move early, birdieing the first hole to share the lead, staying there for the rest of the day. It was an eventful start for Matsuyama with three birdies and two bogeys in his first five holes, but he eventually settled in and cruised around TPC Scottsdale without much drama.
As is typically the case for Matsuyama, the story of his tournament thus far is a hot putter. Putting has long been his biggest weakness, but at TPC Scottsdale, he’s extremely comfortable on the greens. It shows in a top 10 performance thus far in strokes gained putting. He’s been nails inside 10 feet, pouring in some long ones by matching line and speed beautifully in the desert.
For as solid as Saturday was for Matsuyama, he didn’t take it as low as his team would have liked in that final grouping, and as a result, the leaderboard has bunched up behind him. Nine players are within two shots of the lead going into the final round, and everyone in the field knows there are some 65s to be had out there on Sunday that could bring even more players into the mix.
The weather is expected to be ideal again on Sunday, but if it follows the same pattern with the wind picking up late, those who go off a little earlier in the day might be able to apply some pressure to those final groups on a firm golf course. Among those in position to make an early Sunday charge is World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler — also a two-time winner at this event — who got off to a slow start to his third round before kicking it in gear late to shoot a 67 and move into T16 at 8 under, five off Matsuyama’s pace.
Scheffler left a few out there to start in his round, and if he can get off to a faster start on Sunday and put his name on the first page of the leaderboard, it will certainly give Matsuyama and the rest of those at the top of the leaderboard something to think about.
Leader
1. Hideki Matsuyama (-13): Matsuyama’s record around TPC Scottsdale is fantastic, but it has been four years since he was last in contention here. This time around, he seems to be in full control of his game tee-to-green again, and his familiarity and comfort on the greens at this course are evident in the confidence he’s shown with the putter. The question going into Sunday will be whether he can post enough birdies to win, but no one in the field has been better this week at avoiding bogeys, which means those chasing Matsuyama can’t expect him to come back to the field.
Matsuyama has never lost a tournament where he’s held the solo lead going into the final round, converting all five chances into victories, per Justin Ray.
Contenders
T2. Nicolai Højgaard, Maverick McNealy, Si Woo Kim, Ryo Hisatsune (-12)
T6. Matt Fitzpatrick, Michael Thorbjornsen, Jake Knapp (-11)
10. John Parry (-10)
T11. Viktor Hovland, Min Woo Lee, Rasmus Højgaard, Chris Gotterup, Pierceson Coody (-9)
T16. Scottie Scheffler and three others (-8)
The top of the leaderboard is littered with players who have been playing terrific golf to start 2026, which should set up an exciting final-round finish. Most of them are fresh off strong third-round performances, riding waves of confidence into Sunday.
Hovland, McNealy, Thorbjornsen and Nicolai Højgaard all posted 65s on Saturday for the low rounds of the day, climbing into contention after starting the round well off the pace. Kim, Knapp and Rasmus Højgaard were close behind with 5-under 66s, and they all ought to be thinking about backing that up with a similar performance on Sunday if they’re going to pull off a comeback victory.
Hisatsune seemed a little tight in the final grouping on Saturday, finishing with a bogey to shoot 71, but he proved last week he has the game to hang around on a Sunday — and he won’t have to battle the final group nerves after sliding back to 12 under.
Scheffler feels like the player furthest down the board who could realistically have a chance, and it’s going to come down to him getting off to a faster start than we’ve seen from the World No. 1 all week.
Updated 2026 WM Phoenix Open odds, picks
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
- Hideki Matsuyama (23/10)
- Si Woo Kim (5-1)
- Maverick McNealy (6-1)
- Nicolai Højgaard (15/2)
- Ryo Hisatsune (11-1)
- Matt Fitzpatrick (14-1)
- Jake Knapp (14-1)
- Michael Thorbjornsen (16-1)
- Scottie Scheffler (22-1)
Matsuyama has the same odds as the solo leader going into Sunday as he did when he was one shot back after 36 holes. That presents a little value, even with as many players bunched up behind him as there are. Of that chase group, Kim is as good as it gets at taking it deep, and no one is better tee-to-green right now, though the putter under pressure is a concern. Fitzpatrick made a mess of things coming down the stretch with a double on No. 16 and a bogey on No. 18, but at 14-1, there’s value on a guy who can pile up birdies at this course just two shots back.
Matt Fitzpatrick doubles the 16th to fall out of the lead
If there’s any consolation, he wasn’t alone in slipping out of the lead, as while he was struggling at the 16th, Maverick McNealy’s heater came to an end on the drivable par-4 17th. McNealy went way right off the tee and then found the back bunker with his second, and was unable to get up-and-down to save par, walking off with a disappointing bogey 5.
Michael Thorbjornsen shoots 65 to post 11 under in the clubhouse
He is looking for his first PGA Tour win and will hope Maverick McNealy cools off amid his red-hot run to the solo lead, and that the rest of the leaders on the course aren’t able to take advantage of the birdie holes scattered throughout the back nine. Thorbjornsen closed his round with four birdies in his final six holes, and that’s what awaits the final groups as they try to create a bit of separation on what’s become a bunched leaderboard in Scottsdale.
Maverick McNealy joins the lead at 12 under
Viktor Hovland posts a 65 for the low round of Saturday so far
Rasmus Højgaard is the only real threat to best that score on the course (-6 thru 16), and Hovland’s efforts have pushed him into the top 10 after starting the day back in 37th. At 9 under, he’s just two shots off the lead and will have a chance for his first win of the season on Sunday after not being part of the conversation coming into the weekend.
Scottie Scheffler gets within three shots of the lead
This shot left Scottie stunned. pic.twitter.com/0I2GHnaOFi
— Golf on CBS ⛳ (@GolfonCBS) February 7, 2026
This shot left Scottie stunned. pic.twitter.com/0I2GHnaOFi
— Golf on CBS ⛳ (@GolfonCBS) February 7, 2026
With the lead not changing yet from where it began the day at 11 under, it’s opened the door for the likes of Scheffler and others — like Viktor Hovland and Rasmus Højgaard, who are putting together the best rounds of the day — to move into the top 10 and create a very bunched leaderboard at TPC Scottsdale.
— Presidents Cup International Team (@IntlTeam) February 7, 2026
Si Woo Kim joins the lead at 11 under after a red-hot start
He’s now tied with Hideki Matsuyama — who is yet to make a par today in his first five holes — and Ryo Hisatsune. There are few players on the PGA Tour better at taking it way under par than Kim, who is as aggressive as they come, and the question now is whether he can stay hot or if he’ll tempt fate a bit too much and put himself in some trouble attacking flags on a firm golf course.