LeBron to the Warriors? Kawhi to the Raptors? Jaylen Brown to the… Blazers? Our experts are making predictions based on everything we know right now
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The NBA offseason has arrived, and it certainly has not been boring. Giannis Antetokounmpo is on the Heat, free agency kicks off on Tuesday and rumors are swirling about some of the sport’s biggest names.
LeBron James is a free agent and recent reporting has linked him to the Warriors. That’s not all in Golden State. The Warriors could reportedly try to add Anthony Davis in a trade and pair James and AD with Stephen Curry and Draymond Green, the latter of whom made a key contract decision on Monday. Elsewhere on the trade market, the Celtics continue to try to solve their Jaylen Brown dilemma after falling short in the Giannis sweepstakes, and the Clippers appear ready to end the chaotic Kawhi Leonard era in L.A.
The NBA’s landscape has already shifted significantly in the last 10 days. It will look even more unusual by the end of the week. So before more major moves happen, we’re going to make some predictions. Our experts are taking their best guesses at where each of those four big names (James, Davis, Brown and Leonard) will end up by the start of next season. Do note that we did this same exercise just two weeks ago, and many of the answers have changed. Using everything we know now (as of Monday afternoon), here are our landing spot predictions.
LeBron James
Botkin: Draymond Green declining his $27 million player option to presumably take less annual money made this whole “LeBron to the Warriors” thing real. There is no way he does that without looking at it as the first step in getting not just James, but Anthony Davis, to the Bay, and all three of them are repped at the same agency. So again, if this happens, it would no longer be a surprise. That said, I still think the Lakers are the better bet to keep James. They have more money to give him than the Warriors, and they don’t seem to have any better options. If they land Walker Kessler or Jalen Duren, fine. But that seems unlikely. So I think the Lakers pony up in the end and LeBron stays put.
Gonzalez: Some of us (puts hand up) have been on the LeBron to Golden State hype train since the season ended. Staying with the Lakers makes sense given his family is there and so are his myriad business concerns, but the Lakers aren’t winning anything even if he sticks around. The best-case scenario for him to stay close-ish to his off-court interests while also finally teaming up with Steph (and Draymond and maybe even reunite with Anthony Davis while he’s at it) is heading up to NoCal. I’m not sure that even if all four of them are in a Warriors uniform that GSW would be able to get past OKC, the Spurs or even the Nuggets in the postseason, but I’m quite confident it would make for appointment viewing. LeBron will be 42 in December. Steph will turn 38 in March. Time is running out for the overdue alliance we’ve long waited to see. Let’s make this happen.
Kalland: There’s more than just a little smoke right now regarding the Warriors’ plans to bring in LeBron and Anthony Davis. Perhaps there’s some 4D chess at play here, but I’m inclined to believe this, largely because I find it hard to imagine any other team has real reason to pursue Anthony Davis as aggressively as the Warriors. Reuniting with AD and playing with Stephen Curry would be extremely appealing to LeBron, and they can all relive the glory days of Team USA’s past while trying to chase one last postseason run.
Maloney: There has been smoke about James going to Golden State for months now, and Yahoo Sports reported Sunday on Golden State’s grand plan to acquire James and Anthony Davis. I just don’t know about all that. It makes for a great summer story, but it feels like there are too many moving parts to pull it all together. Plus, ESPN reported that “happiness, not money,” is James’ priority this summer. That could sound like staying in Los Angeles and playing with Bronny.
Quinn: Maybe I’m just the dog sitting at the table in the burning room telling myself “this is fine” as smoke billows around me, but if I were to guess, I would say that LeBron’s priorities are this point would likely be getting paid and remaining close to home. The Lakers obviously have the capacity to do both. If there was a center out there worth their cap space, I might feel differently, but I don’t think the Pistons or Jazz will let their restricted free agent bigs (Jalen Duren and Walker Kessler) walk. At the end of the day, I just don’t see a better use of the Lakers’ money out there than running it back with LeBron. This free agent class is too weak to do much else.
Salerno: I had LeBron returning to the Lakers when we first put together our offseason predictions. However, there is so much smoke surrounding LeBron and the Warriors, I think this could actually happen. Pairing LeBron and Steph Curry together would be entertaining and memorable.
Kawhi Leonard
Botkin: This seems like it’s all but done. I’ve always wondered how much Leonard regretted leaving Toronto in the first place. That was such a magical year and he was so celebrated and seemed so comfortable. Toronto had such an awesome team seven years ago that could’ve kept running it back. But Los Angeles was home, Kawhi went back, it didn’t go as he’d hoped, and now he’s basically limited his market to the Raptors by saying that’s the only place he’ll sign an extension. Whether the Raptors should give him an extension (for big money), is another question. But they will. And Kawhi isn’t going to say no.
Gonzalez:There are reports that Toronto would like to center a trade package for Kawhi around Brandon Ingram rather than RJ Barrett, who has been on the trade block for seemingly forever. Barrett is on an expiring contract, which would give the Raptors added flexibility moving forward as they ostensibly try to improve the roster around Leonard and Scottie Barnes. Which makes sense from the Toronto end, but the inverse is true for L.A. The Clippers would probably prefer Barrett’s expiring in the deal for the same reason. Either way, with the findings and punishment of the Aspiration investigation still pending, it appears that it’s time for Leonard to leave the franchise.
Kalland: Also going chalk here given how much noise there is surrounding a Raptors reunion for Kawhi. It is funny that, as of now, it seems to be a bidding war between the Raptors and Masai Ujiri (now in Dallas) for Leonard’s services. The East is going to be a wide open battle again it seems, with the Knicks as the favorites with diminished depth from their championship squad. No one knows exactly what Boston looks like after the Jaylen Brown saga and Miami seems a year away from really putting together the best possible roster around Giannis Antetokounmpo. That opens the door for next year, and Toronto will know better than anyone how capitalizing on the right opportunity can change a franchise, which is why the Raptors should do what it takes to bring Leonard back.
Maloney: ESPN reported Monday that the Clippers and Raptors are “seriously engaged” in talks over a deal that would bring Leonard back to Toronto. It’s very rare that discussions get to that point and ultimately fall apart.
Quinn: This one is pretty straightforward. It’s time for the Clippers to rebuild. Their championship window has been closed and boarded up. All they can do now is cash out on Leonard for as much as they can following one of his best seasons. Considering he’s reportedly only willing to extend in Toronto, the Raptors are the obvious favorite to secure his services. Expect a deal involving Brandon Ingram and draft picks that sends the 2019 Finals MVP back to his former team.
Salerno: Who says you can’t go home? Although Leonard spent just one season with the Raptors, it sure was memorable. I actually really like the fit of him joining this Raptors roster that is full of wings. Obviously, the cost is going to be the hold-up. If the Clippers want Collin Murray-Boyles, who I am extremely bullish on, it would be hard for me to part with him. However, this is Kawhi we are talking about. He was awesome last season and would be great in his encore with the Raptors.
Jaylen Brown
Botkin: This is a total crapshoot right now. There are so many teams that could seriously use Brown and would have a realistic trade package with which to enter the conversation. The Hornets. The Rockets. The Pistons. The Blazers. I could make a case for the Spurs around De’Aaron Fox and some of their draft capital. The Magic are the team no one is talking about that would make a lot of sense; they are desperate for consistent shot creation, and I would jump at Franz Wagner and Jalen Suggs if I were the Celtics. But I’ll still say the Nuggets. Nikola Jokić’s potential free agency is hanging over that franchise and they don’t have a lot of ways to get meaningfully better. I am not that sure that a Jamal Murray-Brown swap really changes the Nuggets’ fortunes, and Denver would be hurting for ball-handling. But Brown is probably a better player than Murray and a front line of Jokic, Brown and Aaron Gordon is pretty damn formidable.
Gonzalez: Should be Boston here on the merits. He and the Celtics have enjoyed considerable success together. But it feels like the vibes aren’t great after Boston dangled him in a Giannis trade that never came to fruition. Meanwhile, the Jalen Duren vibes in Detroit seem equally not great. He wanted a certain number last year; the Pistons balked. He wants a certain (bigger) number this year; the Pistons appear to be balking again — or at least double-dog daring him to find a better offer on the restricted free agent market than what they came up with to start the negotiations. Maybe the solution is the Celtics and Pistons just swap problems. Duren would look great in the Boston front court, while Brown would slot in seamlessly in Detroit. Yes, the Pistons would need to find a better option at center than Paul Reed (with apologies to BBall Paul), but that’s something to figure out after the bigger issues here get sorted.
Kalland: I’m sticking with Houston as I did the last time we did this exercise. There’s a lot of smoke with Portland, but Houston is a team that needs to make a move to really upgrade their roster and Brown makes so much sense for what they need. The Rockets have the players and the draft assets to make a compelling offer, and even though it’s been fairly quiet around Houston this summer, the Rockets could make a sudden splash to enter the Western Conference arms race in a major way.
Maloney: The Celtics are clearly willing to part with Brown this summer, but now that the Giannis Antetokounmpo sweepstakes are over, it’s hard to see a deal that makes sense. Brown is too good, has too many years (three) left on his contract and too much history with the franchise to send him out in a glorified salary dump. No team has been willing to meet the Celtics’ price, which Sam Amick described as the “sun and the moon.” In the end, I think they’ll smooth things over, at least well enough that he begins the season in Boston.