Quarterback projections are usually wrong for one simple reason: We spend too much time talking about the quarterback and not enough time talking about everything around him.

Every spring, evaluators obsess over arm strength, athleticism, release mechanics and highlight-reel throws. Then September arrives, and we’re reminded that rookie quarterbacks don’t enter the NFL in a vacuum. They enter ecosystems. Some inherit stable organizations, proven play-callers and ascending offensive lines. Others walk into rebuilding projects where every dropback feels like an exercise in survival.

The data back that up.

To see which factors actually mattered most, I ran a model using college and rookie quarterback data from 2015-2025. The goal wasn’t to predict the future; quarterback evaluation is too messy for that. The goal was to identify the traits and circumstances that best correlate with early NFL success.

Five variables consistently emerged: collegiate starts, time to throw, pressure rate, screen-game dependency and first-down rate. Collegiate starts matter because experience matters. Time to throw and pressure rate help reveal whether a quarterback has a feel for the pocket or is creating some of his own problems. Screen rate and first-down rate help separate easy production from meaningful production.

Put them together, and you get a pretty good sense of how a quarterback is likely to respond when the picture changes after the snap and he has to solve the problem himself.

One of the clearest themes in the data was something that sounds obvious until you see it appear over and over again: Quarterbacks drafted first often inherit the hardest jobs. Quarterbacks selected near the top of the draft historically take more sacks and are asked to shoulder more responsibility than quarterbacks selected later. The reason isn’t complicated. The worst teams pick first. Draft capital buys opportunity, but it often comes attached to weaker rosters, shakier protection and coaching staffs under pressure to win immediately.

That’s important because these five quarterbacks enter the league under dramatically different circumstances.

Fernando Mendoza was the No. 1 overall pick and is expected to become the face of the Raiders franchise. Carson Beck landed in Arizona, where the Cardinals invested significant resources in rebuilding the offense around him. Drew Allar joins one of the league’s most stable organizations. Cade Klubnik enters a Jets team still searching for answers. Ty Simpson walks into perhaps the ideal developmental situation behind Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay.

Their talent levels are different. Their developmental timelines are different. And their environments are very different. Which raises a simple question:

What does the best-, worst- and most likely version of each rookie season look like?

One theme kept showing up in the data. First-down rate emerged as the strongest predictor. Experience mattered. Pocket management mattered. But once these quarterbacks reached the NFL, the biggest variable often became the environment around them. Put differently, talent helps get quarterbacks drafted. Environment often determines how quickly they develop.

How reliable is this model?

Before projecting rookie numbers for the 2026 quarterback class, I wanted to know whether the model was actually identifying signal or simply fitting noise.

To test that, I removed Cam Ward, Jaxson Dart and Tyler Shough — the 2025 rookie quarterbacks who played significant snaps in their first NFL seasons — from the training data. I then reran the model to see how its estimates compared to the real-world results: the actual numbers Ward, Dart and Shough produced as rookies.

The results were encouraging.

Testing the model without the 2025 rookie QBs

The model appears to do a good job identifying realistic ranges of outcomes and the factors most likely to push a quarterback toward the high or low end of those ranges.

So let’s get to it.

Fernando Mendoza: The burden of being No. 1

Fernando Mendoza

LV • QB • #15

Heisman Trophy winner who led Indiana to a 16–0 record and CFP National Championship

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If this were based solely on college performance, Fernando Mendoza would be the easy favorite — and it’s not hard to understand why. His 37.6% first-down rate ranked in the 91st percentile despite facing pressure on more than 32% of his dropbacks. Unlike many modern quarterbacks, he wasn’t propped up by a screen-heavy offense. Just 23.1% of his throws came behind the line of scrimmage.

That’s why Mendoza enters the NFL with arguably the cleanest analytical profile in the class. The problem is that he landed behind one of the weakest offensive lines in the league.

Las Vegas ranked near the bottom of the league in pass protection in 2024 and somehow got worse in 2025. Sack rate ballooned from 7.3% to 11.1%, the worst mark among the teams discussed here. Pressure rate climbed from 35.8% to 40.5%, while the running game remained one of the least efficient units in football.

That’s a problem because Mendoza wins from the pocket. He’s not going to erase protection issues with athleticism (though he’s certainly not a bad athlete). His game is built on anticipation, timing and a willingness to stand in against pressure.

Klint Kubiak’s offense can manufacture opportunities through motion and play-action. But even the best scheme eventually requires functional protection. That’s what makes Mendoza such a difficult projection. The most NFL-ready quarterback landed in the least QB-friendly environment.

And unlike Beck, Allar, Klubnik or Simpson, he probably won’t have the luxury of sitting and learning. If Mendoza is going to succeed early, he’ll likely have to do it while overcoming many of the same structural issues that have made life difficult for young passers before him.

Range of outcomes for Fernando Mendoza’s rookie season

The numbers tell the story. Mendoza may have the strongest analytical profile in the class, but his most likely outcome lands much closer to the middle of the distribution than the ceiling. That’s not a reflection of talent. It’s a reflection of where he landed. The model repeatedly penalized quarterbacks entering poor pass-protection situations, and no rookie faces a steeper challenge than Mendoza.

That said, this projection is also one of the most sensitive to environmental changes. The Raiders spent the offseason trying to address the offensive line, signing one of the top free agents available in Tyler Linderbaum and drafting Trey Zuhn III, who brings versatility across the interior. If those additions help stabilize the protection and Las Vegas moves closer to league average up front, Mendoza’s outlook changes considerably. More than any rookie quarterback, his projection may depend on whether everything around him improves as much as he does.

Fernando Mendoza watch: Predicting when Raiders will start No. 1 overall pick; QB’s Rookie of the Year odds

Garrett Podell

Carson Beck: The safest QB in the class?

Carson Beck

ARI • QB • #19

2025: Led ACC in passer efficiency rating (157.0), completion percentage (72.4%) and completions (338)

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If you’re looking for the safest quarterback in this class, it just might be Carson Beck. The question is whether “safe” also means limited. The numbers explain why the model liked him so much: He started 43 games, got the ball out faster than anyone in this class and moved the chains at an elite level. His 38.6% first-down rate ranked in the 95th percentile among draft-eligible quarterbacks from 2015-2026.

He played efficient football, protected the ball and consistently kept his offense on schedule. But he also entered the NFL after playing behind one of the cleanest pockets of any quarterback in the data. Beck’s profile has always been built around avoiding pressure rather than overcoming it, and the challenge for Arizona isn’t helping him play faster — it’s determining how much of his collegiate success carries over when things aren’t quite so clean.

The biggest change since his time at Georgia is that Beck isn’t entering the NFL carrying the expectations that come with being a top-five pick. And that means Arizona can afford to be patient.

That’s important because Beck faced pressure on just 19.1% of his collegiate dropbacks, the lowest figure among these quarterbacks, and more than 32% of his throws came on screens. The problem is that Arizona’s offensive line regressed dramatically in 2025. Sack rate jumped from 5.2% in 2024 to 8.3%, while pressure rate allowed climbed from 29.4% to 39.3%.

The good news for Beck is that the Cardinals spent much of the offseason trying to fix it. They selected Jeremiyah Love third overall, drafted interior offensive lineman Chase Bisontis in Round 2 and signed veterans Isaac Seumalo, Elijah Wilkinson and Matt Pryor. Those moves directly address several of the weaknesses that surfaced during a disappointing 2025 season.

And then there’s the new coach. Mike LaFleur comes from the Shanahan-McVay tree, where quarterbacks are often given answers before the snap and asked to make quick decisions after it. That’s exactly how Beck won at Georgia.

Range of outcomes for Carson Beck’s rookie season

Beck’s projection looks exactly like what you’d expect from arguably the safest quarterback in the class. The model consistently rewarded his experience, quick processing and ability to stay on schedule. Even if the ceiling isn’t what it is for Mendoza – or even Allar (more on that in a second), Beck may have the highest floor.

As is typically the case, Jack Nicklaus’ Muirfield Village is presenting an incredibly stiff test for the PGA Tour’s best at the 2026 Memorial Tournament. A firm, fast golf course with thick rough is still the formula for challenging the world’s best, and when you sprinkle in some strong wind gusts in the afternoon, it made for an incredibly difficult Friday in Dublin, Ohio.

Among the players having trouble handling that challenge is the two-time defending champion Scottie Scheffler. The World No. 1 opened his week with a 1-over 73 on Thursday that included a meltdown at caddie Ted Scott after finding the water on the par-3 16th to lead to a double bogey.

Things didn’t improve much to start his second round. Scheffler failed to make a birdie on the front nine, including a par on the par-5 5th that included a shank from the bunker after getting it greenside in two.

Three straight bogeys from No. 8 to No. 10 as he made the turn only added to Scheffler’s stress, as he suddenly found himself at 4 over and on the cut line with eight holes to play. As is typically the case, Scheffler was able to steady the ship and made a late surge with three birdies in his final five holes to climb not only off the cut line but inside the top 20 heading into the weekend at 1 over.

The concern for Scheffler is that while he’s gaining strokes around the greens and with the putter this week, he’s been among the worst in the field with his iron play. Scheffler ranks 59th (out of 72 players) in strokes gained approach, losing more than two shots to the field, and the distance control that made him so dominant the last two years at Muirfield Village has not shown up thus far to start the week.

A year ago, Scheffler made up a three-shot deficit entering the weekend to win by four, but he’ll need an even bigger weekend charge if he’s going to pull off the first three-peat at the Memorial since Tiger Woods did it back in 2001. Scheffler is currently 10 shots back of J.T. Poston, whose 65 on Friday was truly remarkable given the difficult conditions. Scheffler will need to find a more consistent level with the irons we haven’t seen from him yet this week if he’s going to make himself a real threat.

Scheffler is far from alone in terms of top players who have had fits with Muirfield Village through the first two days of play. Rory McIlroy is also part of the T19 group at 1 over after a 74 in the worst of the afternoon conditions. He and Justin Thomas (+5) gave a somewhat mocking embrace on the 18th green after surviving a brutal day of golf. Like Thomas, Ludvig Åberg made the cut on the number at 5 over after a Friday 78, as Nicklaus’ masterpiece showed its teeth in a big way in the second round.

The leader

1. J.T. Poston (-9)

Poston gained more than nine strokes on the field in his 7-under 65 on Friday that saw him jump into the solo lead heading into the weekend. Poston has long been one of the PGA Tour’s best putters, but on Friday he married that quality on the greens with a sensational ball-striking round to post the best score of the day by four strokes. As we saw last year with Ben Griffin and Nick Taylor, who got to 7 under after 36 holes before stumbling a bit and getting passed by Scheffler, it’s never easy maintaining that kind of level at Muirfield Village over 72 holes. The good news for Poston is he’s created a good bit of separation from much of the field with just four other players within six shots of him going into Saturday.

Weekend contenders

2. Ryan Gerard (-8)
3. Sam Burns (-6)
4. Tommy Fleetwood (-4)
5. Eric Cole (-3)
T6. Patrick Cantlay, Xander Schauffele, Wyndham Clark (-2)
T9. Alex Fitzpatrick, Aaron Rai, Shane Lowry (-1)
T19. Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy and eight others (+1)

Gerard had the lead for much of the morning before Poston ran him down, but the 26-year-old is building on the form from last week’s T10 finish at Colonial and putting himself in position for the biggest win of his career. Sam Burns has shot 69 in both rounds so far and if he could somehow do that all four days, he’d be the heavy favorite to win on Sunday, even facing a three-shot deficit to start the weekend.

Those two and Poston will likely dictate how many players have a chance come Sunday. Any one of them, especially Poston and Gerard, can set the bar too high for anyone else to reasonably reach given the challenge of Muirfield Village. However, if they back up — as is often the case at the Memorial — then an awful lot of players will have an opportunity.

Only five shots separate the big group at T19 from Tommy Fleetwood in fourth at 4 under. That kind of movement is certainly in play, and if that trio at the top starts sliding back, we could see an extremely exciting weekend. Cole had a heartbreaking loss last week in a playoff to Russell Henley, but, like Alex Fitzpatrick, is taking advantage of his chance to play in a signature event while in good form.

Cantlay playing well at Muirfield Village isn’t a surprise given he’s a two-time winner here, and he knows steady play and avoiding mistakes is job No. 1 at the Memorial. Schauffele likewise is a strong theoretical course fit for Muirfield Village and continues his solid play this season in search of his first win in more than a year. Clark, who won two weeks ago by going crazy low at TPC Craig Ranch, is playing well again on a very different kind of golf course, which shows how strong his game is right now.

Notable players who missed the cut

• Jordan Spieth (+6)
• Ben Griffin (+7)
• Min Woo Lee (+8)
• Akshay Bhatia (+9)
• Rickie Fowler (+17)

The top 50 and ties made the weekend, and this week that sent 19 players packing early from the 72-man field. Spieth got off to a great start with a Thursday 71 but had it all go wrong in Friday’s second round with a 79. Griffin, last year’s runner-up, also had a rough first two days and will not make the weekend, and Fowler had two days to forget as his best round was a 79.

Updated Memorial Tournament odds, picks

• J.T. Poston (2-1)
• Ryan Gerard (3-1)
• Sam Burns (5-1)
• Tommy Fleetwood (19/2)
• Xander Schauffele (18-1)
• Scottie Scheffler (20-1)
• Patrick Cantlay (22-1)

Poston or Gerard could absolutely run away and win this, but I have a hard time investing at this low a price with this much golf left to play at a tough course. Scheffler having the sixth-best odds with a 10-shot deficit is hysterical, as the sportsbooks have no interest in paving the way for a big payout for anyone taking him to catch fire on the weekend. I would rather take Schauffele in the same range as someone playing a bit better and three shots closer to the lead. Fleetwood’s ball-striking concerns me a touch as well, as his Thursday 67 felt like some smoke and mirrors after scrambling 11 times for pars, but he’s certainly in play for his first win of the year if he can steady the ship.