The headline-grabbing teams aren’t the only ones worth paying attention to
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In mid-February, one team wins the Super Bowl and becomes a champion. And then, seemingly within a few days, everyone moves on. Within a month, we start declaring “offseason champions.” This team hired a new, highly sought-after coach? Offseason champion. This team filled major holes in free agency? Offseason champion. This team crushed the draft (even though we’ve never seen a single player play a single down in the NFL)? Offseason champion.
Sometimes the teams that are the quietest, though, are the ones making the greatest strides toward becoming an actual football champion. And that’s the goal, right? Last year, the Seahawks were the perfect example. They traded away Geno Smith and signed Sam Darnold, a move most felt lukewarm (at best) about. They traded away DK Metcalf and released Tyler Lockett, their biggest-name offensive stars of late. Their “big” outside signings were Cooper Kupp and DeMarcus Lawrence, and their biggest retention was Ernest Jones.
Offseason champions? Hardly. Only four of our 15 staffers picked Seattle to even make the playoffs last year.
So how can we course correct this year? How can we find great values? Here are five teams that haven’t made a ton of noise this offseason but could make plenty when the results actually matter.
(Odds via DraftKings)
1. Seahawks
- +1100 to win Super Bowl (fourth-shortest in NFL)
- +205 to win NFC West (second-shortest)
- O/U 10.5 wins
At +1100, the Seahawks are tied for the longest odds to win the Super Bowl by any reigning champ in the last eight seasons. It’s not that hard to see why. The Seahawks lost Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III in free agency and saw several other key contributors walk, too. They also lost offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak to the Raiders‘ coaching job.
But, with the exception of them being on “Hard Knocks,” they’re not getting much buzz. That’s a mistake. Last year wasn’t just some lucky run. The Seahawks went 14-3, winning not only the competitive NFC West, but earning the No. 1 seed in the NFC. Their three losses were by a combined nine points. They bulldozed two of their three playoff opponents, including the Patriots in the Super Bowl. DVOA, a metric that adjusts for opponent strength, says the 2025 Seahawks were the third-best Super Bowl champion ever.
There’s too much being made about the uncertainty — at offensive coordinator, at running back, etc. It’s not as if Kubiak had been overly successful before coming to Seattle; Mike Macdonald deserves the benefit of the doubt when it comes to his hires. And while Seattle will miss Walker’s explosiveness, Seattle only ranked 28th in rushing success rate last year.
Macdonald is terrific. He was No. 2 in our coach rankings and unanimous No. 1 in our defensive play caller rankings. The defense should once again be excellent. Devon Witherspoon is a top-five cornerback, the interior defensive line duo of Leonard Williams and Byron Murphy II is the best in the NFL, and Jones was an All-Pro last year. Safety Nick Emmanwori is an emerging star. The Seahawks are just fine not generating a lot of headlines while generating a lot of wins.
2. Packers
- +1800 to win Super Bowl (tied for ninth-shortest)
- +225 to win NFC North (second-shortest)
- O/U 9.5 wins
On Dec. 7, the Packers were 9-3-1 and had won four straight games entering a showdown with the Broncos. Green Bay ranked in the top five in several defensive categories, including yards per play, yards per pass attempt and explosive play rate.
Then things fell apart. Leading in the third quarter, Micah Parsons tore his ACL. Green Bay lost that game and its next three regular-season games, and then they blew a 21-3 lead against the Bears in the wild card game. The defense completely fell apart without Parsons (and, it should be noted, several other key players), and the offense never quite reached the heights it sometimes looked like it could.
It seems like it’s said every year, but perhaps this is actually the year the offense becomes one of the league’s best. Jordan Love has three talented, young receivers: Christian Watson and Jayden Reed both got extensions this offseason, and Matthew Golden is a strong second-year breakout candidate.
Parsons is anticipating an early- or mid-season return. Green Bay made several additions on defense during the offseason — including coordinator Jonathan Gannon — and has a relatively friendly early-season schedule, when they’ll be without Parsons.
3. Broncos
- +2000 to win Super Bowl (tied for 13th-shortest odds)
- +225 to win AFC West (third-shortest)
- O/U 9.5 wins
The Broncos’ elation of a divisional round win over the Bills quickly turned to stunned heartbreak when, moments after the game, news broke that Bo Nix had fractured his ankle. One week later, with backup Jarrett Stidham under center, they lost 10-7 to the Patriots.
It’s impossible to definitively say the Broncos would have won with Nix, but given how their defense dominated … you get the picture. Now? They have longer odds than the Lions and the same odds as the Bengals to win the Super Bowl. Neither team even made the postseason last year. The Broncos were likely a freak injury away from the Super Bowl. The Broncos are behind not only the Chiefs but also the Chargers in the AFC West odds. Even Denver’s 9.5 win total seems low; it won 14 games last year and 10 the year before, when Nix was a rookie.
The Broncos’ passing attack should be significantly more dynamic with Jaylen Waddle in tow. He creates explosives down the field and with the ball in his hands, a perfect complement to the bigger-bodied Courtland Sutton. The excellent offensive line returns, and J.K. Dobbins is back and healthy, leading a running back room that has plenty of depth. The defense returns basically everyone except defensive lineman John Franklin-Myers. Denver should be a shoo-in playoff team at worst.
4. Jaguars
- +245 to win AFC South (second-shortest odds)
- +110 to make playoffs (17th-shortest odds)
- O/U 8.5 wins
In the course of handing out offseason winners, there are also offseason losers, and it’s easy to make the case that the Jaguars were one of them. Jacksonville lost its top running back (Travis Etienne) and its All-Pro linebacker (Devin Lloyd), made only minor additions and used its only top-80 pick on Nate Boerkircher, who projects as a rotational blocking tight end.
But what about the internal development? Trevor Lawrence caught fire down the stretch of last season as Jacksonville won eight straight games before losing a close one to the Bills in the playoffs. He could simply continue to play at a high level, now in Year 2 of Liam Coen’s offense. Coen has proved he’s among the game’s best offensive minds. The wide receivers — Brian Thomas Jr., Jakobi Meyers, Parker Washington and at times Travis Hunter — provide a nice mix of complementary skills. Bhayshul Tuten and free agent Chris Rodriguez Jr. could be a nice 1-2 running back punch.
If Hunter can be a bigger contributor defensively, that would be huge, too. Jacksonville’s defense was a top-10 unit by most measures last year.
5. Saints
- +270 to win NFC South (second-shortest)
- +184 to make playoffs (22nd-shortest)
- O/U 7.5 wins
Here’s one team well outside the projected playoff picture to be bullish on. The Saints added Etienne to boost a sluggish rushing attack, signed guard David Edwards to fortify an offensive line that features two young, talented tackles and drafted Jordyn Tyson No. 8 overall to pair with Chris Olave.
New Orleans won four of its final five games, with Tyler Shough looking better and better after taking over as starter midseason. Chase Young quietly posted a resurgent year with 10 sacks in just 12 games and an 18.1% pressure rate, seventh in the NFL (min. 200 pass-rush snaps). There’s young talent in the secondary. The Bryan Bresee injury hurts, but this is an intriguing option in the oft-underwhelming NFC South.
