Bowl projections: Preseason outlook as Miami, Big Ten, SEC lead the way in loaded CFP bracket

— at least scribbled on my in-house whiteboard with win-loss projections for 138 FBS teams across 10 conferences.

This is my favorite time of the year, with the 2026 season approaching, an opportunity to project all 43 bowl games extremely early, including the matchups that will define the College Football Playoff. The 12-team field has created a greater margin for error among national championship contenders, but preseason expectations still carry weight when separating the sport’s elite from everyone else.

Ohio State, Oregon and Notre Dame headline the early title conversation, while several dark-horse threats are positioned to crash the party. Beyond the playoff, these projections forecast landing spots for every bowl-eligible team and spotlight potential clashes between programs from across the Power Four and Group of Six.

College football rankings: Ohio State tops Oregon as SEC teams shoot up in Preseason CBS Sports 138

Chip Patterson

There will be surprise contenders, disappointing preseason favorites and inevitable postseason chaos, but this is our best August look at how college football’s road to the national championship could unfold during bowl season this winter.

AP poll history suggests there’s almost always a preseason top-10 team that finishes the season unranked. The hard part is predicting which team it will be this fall. I’m projecting seven of the preseason top 10 to make the playoff, with a couple of SEC teams not in this early bracket in the middle of a three-loss logjam in the league standings.

Clemson (2024) and Alabama (2025) are the only teams that have lost three games prior to the selection committee’s final vote and still received a CFP berth. Alabama got there last season after its third loss came in the conference title game, while Clemson was awarded a spot as an auto-qualifier after winning the ACC.

For now, until we see further expansion, college football’s 12-team playoff format includes five automatic bids for the highest-ranked conference champions and seven at-large bids determined by the selection committee’s final top 12.

College Football Playoff projections

First round

DATE  LOCATIONPROJECTIONWINNER FACES

Projected final records for playoff teams

1. Miami (13-0)*
2. Oregon (12-1)*
3. Georgia (12-1)*
4. Notre Dame (11-1)
5. Texas (11-2)
6. Texas Tech (12-1)*
7. Indiana (10-2)
8. Ohio State (10-3)
9. LSU (10-2)
10. BYU (11-2)
11. SMU (11-2)
12. UNLV (12-1)*

*denotes projected conference champion

I was the only voter to rank Miami No. 1 in our CBS Sports 138 rankings earlier this summer, and only one AP voter agreed in the preseason poll. Planting my flag in Coral Gables in this preseason projection was a no-brainer for me, considering who the Hurricanes signed in the transfer portal, the schedule’s favorability, and staff continuity under Mario Cristobal.

This is only one man’s educated guess, but Miami at Notre Dame on Nov. 7 will be one of college football’s regular-season games of the year and will determine which team is unbeaten and ranked No. 1 coming down the stretch.

I battled inner turmoil with the squads seeded in the 4-6 range of this projection, which was honestly the toughest stretch to call. We can’t assume Texas Tech, my pick to win the Big 12, will automatically be viewed more favorably by the selection committee over a one-loss Notre Dame — whose projected lone blemish comes to No. 1 and unbeaten Miami — or a two-loss Georgia.

The only justifiable case for the Red Raiders locking in a top-4 seed comes if they win the Big 12 as an unbeaten. If there’s a loss somewhere in the regular season, that argument has holes when considering strength-of-schedule and strength-of-record metrics relative to others in the mix.

In the Big Ten and SEC, I’m expecting three programs from each conference to make up half of the bracket, including projected league champions Oregon and Georgia.

As for the first team(s) out, UNLV will be a bid-stealer of sorts as an auto-choice for the likes of potential three-loss teams USC, Ole Miss and others. With 11 wins and its only losses coming to Notre Dame in the regular season and Miami in the ACC title game, SMU is the pick right now to be the last team in as the 11-seed over various three-loss Power Four options.

Quarterfinals

DATEGAME / LOCATIONPROJECTION

Full bowl schedule, projections

Salute to Veterans Bowl

Pool: CUSA, MAC, Sun Belt
Projection: Delaware vs. James Madison

Frisco Football Classic

Pool: CUSA, Sun Belt
Projection: Arkansas State vs. FIU

Boca Raton Bowl

Pool: Group of Six
Projection: Air Force vs. FAU

Puerto Rico Bowl

Pool: MAC, Pac-12 or Group of Six
Projection: Georgia Southern vs. Washington State

Myrtle Beach Bowl

Pool: Group of Six
Projection: Coastal Carolina vs. Western Michigan

Frisco Bowl

Pool: Group of Six
Projection: Miami (Ohio) vs. Fresno State

Cure Bowl

Pool: Group of Six
Projection: South Florida vs. Florida

Gasparilla Bowl

Pool: American, CUSA, ACC/SEC
Projection: South Carolina vs. Virginia

New Orleans Bowl

Pool: CUSA, Sun Belt
Projection: Liberty vs. Old Dominion

Potato Bowl

Pool: MAC, Mountain West
Projection: Toledo vs. North Dakota State

Armed Forces Bowl

Pool: American, CUSA or Big 12
Projection: Memphis vs. Kansas State

Independence Bowl

Pool: American, Big 12, CUSA, former Pac-12
Projection: Tulane vs. West Virginia

New Mexico Bowl

Pool: Mountain West, CUSA or Sun Belt
Projection: Troy vs. Boise State

Hawaii Bowl

Pool: Mountain West, American or CUSA
Projection: East Carolina vs. Hawaii

68Ventures Bowl

Pool: MAC, Sun Belt, CUSA
Projection: Buffalo vs. Jacksonville State